Three rules, applied without exception.
No model is right more than it is useful. The desk's advantage is not a secret formula — it is discipline about which numbers to take, how much to risk, and how to grade the result honestly.
Build the number
Before any price is looked at, the game gets a line. Efficiency rates on both sides of the ball, pace and play count, rest and travel, quarterback and injury status, weather, and situational splits all feed the model. The output is one number: what this game should be.
Compare it to the market
The model line goes up against the best available spread and total. The gap between the two is the raw edge. Under a full point, the desk passes — the juice eats whatever is left.
Read the movement
Open-to-current movement is tracked and split against public handle. A line that moves against the money, or a number that sits still while 70% of tickets land on one side, is information the box score cannot give you.
Size it, then grade it
Stake is one, two or three units. Nothing larger, no matter how good it looks. The pick is published at the number taken and settled against the close, so the record measures process, not luck.
The stake is part of the pick.
Units, not dollars
One unit is one percent of bankroll. A three-unit play risks three percent. That keeps a bad Sunday a small problem instead of a decision you have to undo.
No chasing
A losing week does not earn a bigger stake next week. The desk's worst stretch this season was five straight losses — the response was smaller stakes, not larger ones.
No locks, no guarantees
There is no such thing as a guaranteed bet, and anyone selling one is selling something else. Every number here is a probability, priced as honestly as the desk can price it.
The close is the scorecard
Beating the closing line consistently is the best available evidence that a pick had value, whatever the final score did. That is why the close sits beside every graded pick.
If you are new, start here.
None of this requires you to be a sharp. It requires knowing what the numbers on the board actually mean.
- Spread
- The handicap applied to the favorite. A -6.5 favorite must win by seven or more for that side to cash.
- Total (over/under)
- The combined score the market expects. You take over or under that number.
- Moneyline
- A straight win bet with no handicap. -150 means you risk 150 to win 100; +130 means you risk 100 to win 130.
- Juice / vig
- The price attached to a spread, usually -110. It is the book's cut and the reason a 52.4% win rate is the break-even line.
- ATS
- Against the spread — how a pick is graded when the handicap is applied, regardless of who won the game.
- Unit
- The desk's standard stake. One unit is one percent of a bankroll; most picks here are one to three units.
- Push
- A tie against the number. Stake is returned and the pick costs zero units.
- Closing line
- The last price before kickoff. Beating the close is the clearest sign a pick was taken at a good number.
The bridge
Data validated. Strategy set.
The desk stops at the number. If you play, you play at lunaris.casino — that's where the ticket gets written. Nothing here is a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
21+ · Play responsibly · Set limits before you play