Every pick, priced and reasoned.
One to three units on everything. Published before kickoff at the number we took, then graded against the close. Nothing is removed after the fact, including the bad weeks.
- Open positions
- 6
- Graded
- 412
- ATS win rate
- 58.7%
- Units
- +38.2
Open cards
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
Oklahoma City -4.5
Minnesota's half-court offense is the worst matchup problem on the board.
Price
-108
Stake
3u
+2.78 to win
Edge
+1.7
Kansas City @ Buffalo
Under 48.5
Two top-five pressure rates, two quarterbacks playing through ankle tags.
Price
-112
Stake
3u
+2.68 to win
Edge
+1.8
Georgia @ Tennessee
Tennessee +3
A number built on reputation, not on the last six weeks of tape.
Price
-115
Stake
2u
+1.74 to win
Edge
+1.9
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Baltimore -6.5
A divisional favorite with a healthy offensive line and a defense that stops the run.
Price
-110
Stake
2u
+1.82 to win
Edge
+1.3
Boston @ Denver
Boston +1
Small edge, small stake. Denver's altitude is priced in, its rotation is not.
Price
-112
Stake
2u
+1.79 to win
Edge
+0.9
Ohio State @ Michigan
Ohio State -6
A stale number, but the matchup profile is thinner than the record suggests.
Price
-105
Stake
1u
+0.95 to win
Edge
+1.4
Recently graded
Settled at the number published, with the closing line noted beside it. Where we beat the close, that is the part of the process worth trusting — not the final score.
Detroit +1.5 · Detroit @ Philadelphia
Detroit 27, Philadelphia 24. Covered by 4.5 and won outright.
Took
-110
Close
Philadelphia -2
Alabama -7 · Alabama @ LSU
Alabama 31, LSU 20. Covered by 4.
Took
-110
Close
Alabama -7.5
Miami -3 · New York @ Miami
New York won outright 112-104. Full loss.
Took
-108
Close
Miami -3.5
Boston -1.5 (regulation) · Toronto @ Boston
Boston won 3-2 in overtime. The regulation puck line loses.
Took
+152
Close
+145
Under 44 · LA Chargers @ Las Vegas
Final 17-13. 30 points, covered with room.
Took
-110
Close
42.5
Phoenix -2.5 · Golden State @ Phoenix
Phoenix won by 3. Push at 2.5; would have lost at the closing number.
Took
-110
Close
Phoenix -3
New to spreads and totals? The glossary explains every number on this page.
The bridge
Data validated. Strategy set.
The desk stops at the number. If you play, you play at lunaris.casino — that's where the ticket gets written. Nothing here is a sportsbook, and nothing here is financial advice.
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