Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
Minnesota's half-court offense is the worst matchup problem on the board.
The play
Oklahoma City -4.5
Market
Spread
Stake
3u · +2.78 to win
Oklahoma City forces a turnover on 16.8% of defensive possessions and turns those into the most transition points in the league. Minnesota plays the slowest half-court offense in basketball and is on the second night of a back-to-back, with its primary creator listed as questionable. The market moved 3.5 to 4.5 on the news and I still think this lands closer to 7, so I'm laying the points at the best available number.
- OKC net rating +11.4 with its starting five on the floor
- Minnesota: 103.1 offensive rating in the half court (28th)
- Rest advantage: OKC two days off, Minnesota on a back-to-back
Kansas City @ Buffalo
The play
Under 48.5
Price
-112
Two top-five pressure rates, two quarterbacks playing through ankle tags.
Georgia @ Tennessee
The play
Tennessee +3
Price
-115
A number built on reputation, not on the last six weeks of tape.
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
The play
Baltimore -6.5
Price
-110
A divisional favorite with a healthy offensive line and a defense that stops the run.