Boston @ Denver
Small edge, small stake. Denver's altitude is priced in, its rotation is not.
The play
Boston +1
Market
Spread
Stake
2u · +1.79 to win
Denver is 12-3 at home on a full day of rest, which is why this number sits where it does. But Boston is the better defensive team by almost four points per 100 possessions and has the wing depth to stay attached to Denver's cutters. This is a one-possession game on my number, so taking the point with the better half-court defense is the disciplined side.
- Boston defensive rating 108.9 (3rd); Denver 112.6 (14th)
- Denver 12-3 straight up at home on one day of rest
- Boston 15-8 ATS as a road underdog since 2023
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
The play
Oklahoma City -4.5
Price
-108
Minnesota's half-court offense is the worst matchup problem on the board.
Kansas City @ Buffalo
The play
Under 48.5
Price
-112
Two top-five pressure rates, two quarterbacks playing through ankle tags.
Georgia @ Tennessee
The play
Tennessee +3
Price
-115
A number built on reputation, not on the last six weeks of tape.