Ohio State @ Michigan
A stale number, but the matchup profile is thinner than the record suggests.
The play
Ohio State -6
Market
Spread
Stake
1u · +0.95 to win
The line has dropped a full point from open and the sharp tickets are on the dog, which normally keeps me out entirely. I'm on it small because Ohio State's pass rush is the single biggest lever in this game and Michigan has allowed pressure on 38% of dropbacks in conference play. Small stake, no chasing, one unit and done.
- Ohio State pressure rate 41.2% (4th nationally)
- Michigan 3-6 ATS in the last nine meetings as a home dog
- Weather: dry, 41 degrees, minimal wind, no downgrade
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
The play
Oklahoma City -4.5
Price
-108
Minnesota's half-court offense is the worst matchup problem on the board.
Kansas City @ Buffalo
The play
Under 48.5
Price
-112
Two top-five pressure rates, two quarterbacks playing through ankle tags.
Georgia @ Tennessee
The play
Tennessee +3
Price
-115
A number built on reputation, not on the last six weeks of tape.