All picks
NFLWonSun 4:05 PM ET
LA Chargers @ Las Vegas
Graded. The best closing-line value of the month.
The play
Under 44
Market
Total
Stake
3u · +2.73 to win
The narrative
Both teams ranked bottom-six in pace and top-ten in red-zone defense. The total closed 1.5 points below where we took it, which is the clearest sign the number was on our side.
The metrics behind it
- Combined pace: bottom six in the league
- Both defenses top ten in red-zone touchdown rate
- Beat the close by 1.5 points
Settled
Final 17-13. 30 points, covered with room.
Other open positions
NBAFri 8:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City @ Minnesota
The play
Oklahoma City -4.5
Price
-108
Minnesota's half-court offense is the worst matchup problem on the board.
3u stake · edge 1.7Dossier
NFLSun 4:25 PM ET
Kansas City @ Buffalo
The play
Under 48.5
Price
-112
Two top-five pressure rates, two quarterbacks playing through ankle tags.
3u stake · edge 1.8Dossier
NCAAFSat 7:30 PM ET
Georgia @ Tennessee
The play
Tennessee +3
Price
-115
A number built on reputation, not on the last six weeks of tape.
2u stake · edge 1.9Dossier