NBAPushMon 9:00 PM ET

Golden State @ Phoenix

Graded. A push, and an honest one.

The play

Phoenix -2.5

Market

Spread

Stake

1u · +0.91 to win

The narrative

Phoenix had the rest edge and the better half-court offense. It landed exactly on the number we took and one point short of the close, which is the whole argument for taking the best line early.

The metrics behind it

Phoenix 9-4 ATS at home this season
Golden State on the second of a back-to-back
Settled on the exact margin

Settled

Phoenix won by 3. Push at 2.5; would have lost at the closing number.

Other open positions

NBAFri 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City @ Minnesota

The play

Oklahoma City -4.5

Price

-108

Minnesota's half-court offense is the worst matchup problem on the board.

3u stake · edge 1.7Dossier

NFLSun 4:25 PM ET

Kansas City @ Buffalo

The play

Under 48.5

Price

-112

Two top-five pressure rates, two quarterbacks playing through ankle tags.

3u stake · edge 1.8Dossier

NCAAFSat 7:30 PM ET

Georgia @ Tennessee

The play

Tennessee +3

Price

-115

A number built on reputation, not on the last six weeks of tape.

2u stake · edge 1.9Dossier